Two very different Republicans — a media strategist and a veteran sheriff — are staking claims in California’s open-seat 2026 gubernatorial race.
The 2026 California gubernatorial race features two Republicans who currently dominate GOP conversations: Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco. While they share the same party, their backgrounds, appeal, and policy prescriptions diverge sharply, offering Republicans distinct paths forward in a state where flipping control would be a tall order.
Steve Hilton first gained prominence in British politics as a close adviser to former Prime Minister David Cameron, and later became a conservative commentator and host on Fox News.
He formally entered the California governor’s race in April 2025, launching with a “Golden Again” message focused on taxes, housing, and regulation. Hilton has proposed eliminating the state income tax for earners under $100,000 and shifting to a flat tax for high earners, a proposal that critics warn would substantially reduce state revenue.
He has also pledged to pursue legal challenges against Governor Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Rob Bonta should certain redistricting measures be advanced.
In contrast, Chad Bianco brings a law-enforcement profile as the current sheriff of Riverside County, first elected in 2018. His pitch emphasizes public safety, homelessness, and restoring “common sense” to Sacramento.
Bianco was the first major GOP candidate to formally declare, doing so in February 2025. He has painted his campaign as one grounded in direct local experience rather than media flare.
On the polling front, Hilton currently leads among Republicans: a September Emerson College poll placed him at 12% among all voters (compared to Bianco’s 7%), with 38% undecided. Other recent polls, such as the TrueDot/Politico survey, show Bianco at 15% to Hilton’s 10% in the primary, giving Bianco the lead in head-to-head Republican support.
Meanwhile, the UC Berkeley/LA Times poll suggested Bianco is “nearly every Republican’s frontrunner” and positioned him as a potential “Top Two” candidate across party lines.
Each candidate has clear strengths. Hilton brings broad media reach, intellectual framing, and bold tax proposals. Bianco offers tough-on-crime credentials, a direct connection to core Republican concerns, and an immediate governing record.
Both face steep odds: California hasn’t elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger, and Democrats retain a registration advantage.
For Republicans, the question may not just be who leads now—but which candidate is better positioned to cross over with moderates and win in a state that remains deeply blue.
